Curse

yeah_hi · Dec 18, 2006, 11:23 AM // 11:23

Yay speculation!

I think that if, if GW manages to achieve WoW-esque sales and popularity, then there will be much further development and we will see something like Guild Wars 2.

If however the push into China and the next chapter or so do not manage to establish the game as a major contender, I'd speculate that after another chapter (or maybe two), as it becomes less profitable compared to the other games in the NCSoft stable, they'll hand the license over to another 3rd party company.

After that, I'd hazard that it will either end up like Diablo II with a smaller core of players and little development...

or

...That 3rd party company will have no obligation to continue with the 'No Monthly Fees!' promise originally made by NCS/Anet, and would be free to charge a monthly fee to keep the game going and in development.

</ wild speculation!>

Riotgear · Dec 18, 2006, 11:32 AM // 11:32

Quote:

Originally Posted by penguo

In my opinion Guildwars will last a few more years, because it's not holding that many people in my guild's interest.

WoW has its fair share of turnover too, particularly the people miffed at the sharp change in direction the game takes at level 60. GW also doesn't really rely on players staying in the game as much either (although, for reasons stated earlier, it may be difficult to get new players now).

Quote:

More games are comeing into the market too including Aion and Tabula Rasa, and it will be hard for Guildwars to keep up.

When you need a new MMO, never bank on the future. Which is to say that people were complaining about WoW saying they'd leave for Vanguard. Vanguard came out and sucked. Then they said they'd leave for DDO. DDO came out and sucked. Now they all say they're gonna leave when WHO comes out, and it'll probably suck too. The MMORPG genre in general is mostly crap, so I wouldn't be too worried.

lyra_song · Dec 18, 2006, 12:16 PM // 12:16

Quote:

Originally Posted by arcanemacabre

I agree with Quid Pro Quo. The engine itself is just outdated, and without a seriously large amount of work, cannot get certain upgrades to the past chapters.

outdated? Because you cant jump? LOL

What will jumping give us?

Give me a tactical use or advantage to jumping in pvp combat.

I'd much rather Anet implement a "quick dodge" to avoid arrows than jumping.

The engine is designed for streamlined PVP, not for immersive PVE.

This is why the so called "easy to implement ideas" that people insist on wanting are not implemented so very easily. It was never designed to have another row of storage, or an auctionhouse, etc.

Thallandor · Dec 18, 2006, 12:54 PM // 12:54

Until it cease to become profitable.

Its in Anet's Best interest to appeal itself to newer players to try it out. Doesnt matter if they hate it after 5 hours into the game/off the newbie Island, as long as they make the $50 dip, then they can go inactive/quit all they want.

If all goes well in China, Chinese players/market may be paying/bringing in the dough for the rest of us to keep playing the game for a long long time.

furbat · Dec 18, 2006, 03:09 PM // 15:09

I am not sure how long its going to be around but think about this.

MMOs charge a monthly fee for a reason. Running game servers is expensive. When ANET stops producing expansions, they start bleeding money. So... they need to keep releasing expansions to not bleed money. And as long as their product is around they need to keep the servers going cause you need their servers to play.

When ANET stops selling expansions, they are screwed.

Patrick Smit · Dec 18, 2006, 03:53 PM // 15:53

Quote:

Originally Posted by furbat

I am not sure how long its going to be around but think about this.

MMOs charge a monthly fee for a reason. Running game servers is expensive. When ANET stops producing expansions, they start bleeding money. So... they need to keep releasing expansions to not bleed money. And as long as their product is around they need to keep the servers going cause you need their servers to play.

When ANET stops selling expansions, they are screwed.

Only half the truth, also monthly fee games need to "evolve" and expand, if the dough gets old paying consumers will leave as well. Part of the income "problem" was solved by listening to demand of players, buying extra slots to suit your needs, buying skill sets, and i guess that in the future, even PvP skillsets may be bought without owning the specific campaign, making it more easy for new players to access the "older" skills.

Riotgear · Dec 18, 2006, 06:47 PM // 18:47

Quote:

Originally Posted by lyra_song

It was never designed to have another row of storage, or an auctionhouse, etc.

Unless the engine is really, really, really poorly designed, they probably can add another storage row. Then they just have to migrate all of the old storages. Whoopie.

Not designed for an auction house? They managed to integrate a STORE into the game engine, I'm sure they can implement an auction house.

Mr Jazzy · Dec 18, 2006, 06:54 PM // 18:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marvel M

Easilly 10+ Years..

20,000 Players $50.00 for Campaign will net 1 Million..

20,000 units sold will not net 1 million dollars. Each GW unit produced is a business investment, meaning money goes into each game. I think they invest about 5-8 dollars into each game, with a 40ish$ net profit.

Clawdius_Talonious · Dec 18, 2006, 07:13 PM // 19:13

Quote:

Originally Posted by furbat

I am not sure how long its going to be around but think about this.

MMOs charge a monthly fee for a reason. Running game servers is expensive. When ANET stops producing expansions, they start bleeding money. So... they need to keep releasing expansions to not bleed money. And as long as their product is around they need to keep the servers going cause you need their servers to play.

When ANET stops selling expansions, they are screwed.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Patrick Smit

Only half the truth, also monthly fee games need to "evolve" and expand, if the dough gets old paying consumers will leave as well. Part of the income "problem" was solved by listening to demand of players, buying extra slots to suit your needs, buying skill sets, and i guess that in the future, even PvP skillsets may be bought without owning the specific campaign, making it more easy for new players to access the "older" skills.

Neither of you touched on the fact that Guild Wars is a very, VERY low bandwidth application. This enables them to have the game exist without a monthly fee, and with a minimum of servers running which saves them a ton of money on maintaining them.

While it is true that your average MMO will start hemmoraging money when their maintainance costs exceed their income from subscription fees, Guild Wars isn't faced with the same sort of problem; Battle.net still allows people to play Diablo II online after all these years. Guild Wars was founded by ex Blizzard employees that helped make Battle.net, they knew ways to squeeze as much performance out of as little bandwidth as is possible. By building the Guild Wars game around this low bandwidth, low cost/fewer server strategy. This enables the Arenanet team to focus on creating new content and selling their chapters as standalone products, as well as catering to old fans that have been around since before Prophecies was released (or had adopted the moniker).

Guild Wars probably doesn't have to sell a million copies for a chapter to be profitable, but it certainly helps. Currently NCsoft makes about 17% of their profit off of this subscription free CORPG, and that's far from chump change, their flagship product Lineage II is the only one that brings in more as far as I know.

As it's been stated here, Anet/NCsoft will continue to make and sell Guild Wars products as long as there is a market for them, and I would imagine that if it ever came down to it, selling 250,000-500,000 copies of a chapter would likely keep them afloat, the cool million copies their sales figures go up by each chapter is just gravy (and enables them to give us free content at times, including all these fun little holiday goodies which we all love so well, Santa Claws needs a Yule Cap!).

devils wraths · Dec 18, 2006, 07:34 PM // 19:34

excuse me but wow is going onto there first expansion so we will see alot more people buy wow now. did you ever see 7 mill people buy gw on first chpater nope. gw is coming up to there 4th chapter shows which game has more content

lyra_song · Dec 18, 2006, 07:37 PM // 19:37

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riotgear

Unless the engine is really, really, really poorly designed, they probably can add another storage row. Then they just have to migrate all of the old storages. Whoopie.

I'm sure they can add another storage row. But it's not a matter of what Anet can or can't do with future add-ons or patches, its their game, they can do what they want.

My point is, it wasn't in their original design of the game.

I'm sure Anet could have made it so storage holds 100 items and your bags hold 50 each.

But they didn't.

Ask yourself why.

Guild Wars was, and always will be, built around PvP.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riotgear

Not designed for an auction house? They managed to integrate a STORE into the game engine, I'm sure they can implement an auction house.

No, its quite a seperate entity.

The store is not part of the game engine at all.

It's merely the game client accessing a web-based store that updates your NCsoft account with more stuff.

Adding more slots - Part of the game already
Unlocking skills - Part of the game already
Adding serial numbers - part of the game already.

So you see, the store isn't adding anything new to the game at all.

--------------------

An auctionhouse, however would involve a new way for the server to handle a database of items that involves player bids, bid tracking, bidder/seller tracking, and a lot of other fun stuff.

None of this is part of the existing game engine.

The only thing even close is the merchants who keep track of prices, and they only handle a small amount of items (insignias, runes, dyes, materials)

Sir Skullcrasher · Dec 18, 2006, 08:10 PM // 20:10

Like all games out there, sequels and expansions are thing that you love or hate. Guild Wars and A-Net has been releasing new chapters after chapters with two new classes and huge amount of weapons and armors. But they never ever (EVER) changed the basic gameplay and depth of the game. All the chapters, you are fighting enemies that is higher level than you. Also the A.I hasn't improve by much over the past few chapters. The henchies and heroes are nice addition but go to place like Gate of Pain or later levels in NF and you can see how the word "difficulty" is injected into this game.

Not saying it's a bad thing to load up the map with so many enemies but it's that the idea of difficulty has remained the same throughout all the chapters. Like everyone said, in order for this game to survive. It need remake the fundamental of Guild Wars and bring back the fun factor that is missing from the original game. Not to mention, the possible needs to redo the gameplay option (like add jumping, flying or whatever) into the world.

LifeInfusion · Dec 18, 2006, 08:33 PM // 20:33

All I have to say is they are constantly improving it. That means it will go on for a while provided people keep buying.

Clawdius_Talonious · Dec 18, 2006, 08:53 PM // 20:53

Quote:

Originally Posted by devils wraths

excuse me but wow is going onto there first expansion so we will see alot more people buy wow now. did you ever see 7 mill people buy gw on first chpater nope. gw is coming up to there 4th chapter shows which game has more content

Now, let's do some math, shall we?

WoW hit American stores on November 23, 2004. So, we'll say you got your month free and it lasted until January (which of course, it wouldn't, but for the sake of this arguement we're going to use that). January 2004 to December 2006, that's 24 months unless I can't count or they added another month without my knowledge. That, at 10 bucks a month (good luck getting it at that, it's like 11.99 or 12.99 bought in 6 month increments) is 240 bucks in subscription fees. So, that's 290 bucks before any applicable taxes that you've spent if you've been with WoW from the start. You're paying for the additional content, or if you've started since the game released then others paid for it and you simply get to enjoy it, but make no mistake the additional content is paid for.

Now, if you had bought all three Guild Wars collectors editions, you'd have spent about two hundred bucks, a bit over (and a bit more than that after taxes, lets call it 225 bucks). So, as a hardcore player of either title you'd have spent over two hundred bucks playing your game of choice since it's been released. However, for the casual gamer, someone who plays on the order of 10-20 hours a week I'd say (if that), you may not have played through Prophy when Factions came out. In the Anet buisiness model, he's able to play Prophy til his eyeballs bleed if he so desires, all for his initial 50 dollar investment in the Guild Wars universe. A casual WoW player would not be so lucky, the Guild Wars player could forsee not being able to play for a few months and not give it another thought (and log in if he found the time, from any computer anywhere without lugging around his install disks, that is another story however). A WoW player, forseeing the same length of absence would be forced to decide whether he wants to stop the next withdrawl of funds from his credit card (and if he was able to find time to log in, he would be out of luck if he hadn't paid for his account time). Since we established that the WoW player was getting the cheaper rates due to buying in 6 month increments, if the absence was unforseen he could very well lose tens of dollars (not a lot to some, but a waste of money is still a waste of money) worth of playtime that he had already purchased.

Now seven million is a lot of accounts sold, but riddle me this, how many of those accounts were farmers who had one account shut down and moved on to farm with another account (and another, and another)? There are only on the order of four million WoW subscribers as far as I am aware, and while that is the most impressive figure any MMO can boast at the moment by no means is the market dry.

Also you have to wonder how much of that investment is being returned to you. Out of one months 40 million (it's much more, but we're working with smaller easier numbers here), how much of that money goes into server maintainance? How much goes into the creation of additional content? Seeing as many games never make 40 million profit, and they still get created (for better or worse, many of them for worse), what are the actual development costs of the intial game as opposed to the creation of additional content (quests, raids, what have you)? The Guild Wars buisiness model is geared towards appealing to the casual players, but it's also saved any GW fan a good bit of loot. I've put in 2800 hours over the last 19 months, I'd have paid 228 bucks or so in subscription fees if I was playing WoW instead. With the money that would have cost me I've been able to buy each chapter and still stay under the wire on the cost of JUST the subscription fee of WoW.

Does WoW have more content? Yes, in many ways it does, but don't talk about it like the additional content is free for the end user - because it's not. (Sorrow's Furnace on the other hand, cannot be argued as anything but free content to old players of Guild Wars.)

valtonray · Dec 18, 2006, 10:04 PM // 22:04

mmo's have long shelf lifes on average. not to mention that guild wars has sold 3 million copies in under 2 years making it one of the most popular MMO's on the market and a strong contender to the big dog WoW who just recently hit the 7 million mark but has been out considerably longer. so i see a bright future ahead for he guildwars gamers. and will most likely be followed buy a completely new sequel at some point but thats going to be a few years away. most likely 4-5 years from now.

arcanemacabre · Dec 18, 2006, 10:18 PM // 22:18

Quote:

Originally Posted by lyra_song

outdated? Because you cant jump? LOL

What will jumping give us?

Give me a tactical use or advantage to jumping in pvp combat.

Please, jumping was an example - something that everyone noticed was impossible the first time they played. Coming from FPSs (original, old-school PvP), not being able to jump is a shock. Other examples with real 'tactical use' would be an actual y-axis, and unique abilities like [limited] flying, grappling/throwing, destroying/altering scenery and using it to your advantage, etc. These are things that would make GW much, much better and simply cannot just be implemented in it's current form - the point I was trying to make.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lyra_song

The engine is designed for streamlined PVP, not for immersive PVE.

Right, that's why Anet wastes hundreds of thousands of manhours working on PvE, designing monsters, AI, weapon/armor skins, missions/quests, storyline, economy, etc. /sarcasm

Marvel M · Dec 18, 2006, 11:27 PM // 23:27

Quote:

Originally Posted by devils wraths

excuse me but wow is going onto there first expansion so we will see alot more people buy wow now. did you ever see 7 mill people buy gw on first chpater nope. gw is coming up to there 4th chapter shows which game has more content

So with this logic: Player Base equals Content --- Whooooooooo

So now I can say GW has more content than UO/EQ/AC/AO/LOTR/D&D/DAOC/MO/SWG and the list goes on and on and on. Without a Monthly Fee...

Yumm Yumm make mine GW...

Marvel M · Dec 18, 2006, 11:28 PM // 23:28

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr Jazzy

20,000 units sold will not net 1 million dollars. Each GW unit produced is a business investment, meaning money goes into each game. I think they invest about 5-8 dollars into each game, with a 40ish$ net profit.

True True ----

My point was that GW can and will be profitable even with a low Player Base...

Take Care..

devils wraths · Dec 18, 2006, 11:36 PM // 23:36

thing is each gw is basically the same just differnt island and basically differnt enemy. i mean to make this game hard they are having to spam you with groups of like 8-16 enemies ie domain of anguish. thing is i dont actaully play wow but from what ive seen its doing well for what it is and ill give them credit for that. notice how long it took them to get to 3 mil wernt it like with factions about 2 weeks they sold 1 million. but nf it took like 2 months

Marvel M · Dec 18, 2006, 11:57 PM // 23:57

Quote:

Originally Posted by devils wraths

thing is each gw is basically the same just differnt island and basically differnt enemy. i mean to make this game hard they are having to spam you with groups of like 8-16 enemies ie domain of anguish. thing is i dont actaully play wow but from what ive seen its doing well for what it is and ill give them credit for that. notice how long it took them to get to 3 mil wernt it like with factions about 2 weeks they sold 1 million. but nf it took like 2 months

I've played WoW for roughly 7 months. The first Month I was like WoW this game rocks. Then just as you described up above - Felt like the same thing over and over. I would go into town and for fun people would be huddle around the main area on their mounts.

I hung onto WoW expecting to get something out of it but in the end - It was just like any other MMO. Human nature to become bored of things that are familiar. So logic kicked in: Why pay a monthly fee for something I already had?

The main difference I saw in WoW when compared to GW is the amount of Dum Dum work they give people. In WoW - U can pick a flowers or Fish to kill time rather than actually really playing the game. It does make you feel like your accomplishing something - but it is still dumm dumm work to keep you numb to things..

This is just my opinion on things..

Take Care...